Bet the better way using Ashva Probs

People often get surprised when we call it invest rather than bet. There is a difference between the two and we specifically call it investing as Ashva probs provide a probabilistic view of the race for all of the runners. When you know chances of outcome instead of just randomly picking any selection or favourite it's worth calling it investment rather than a bet. Ashva probs platform is built with many years of experience and knowledge. Ashva probs are generated with mathematical calculations of historical data combined with live odds of the race. It tries to provide you better value for your investment.

The Tote/Pari mutuel racing market gets more matured as it reaches closer to race start time. Before the race closes, in its last cycle you will find the maximum amount of investment and that’s what represents final odds. This is the reason the Ashva Probs has two probability indexes, EAP (Early Ashva Probs) and LAP (Late Ashva Probs). These probs give you a timeline based view of the market and flexibility for the user to invest in simple or exotic pools.

Motive behind bringing the Ashva probs to the public is to give enough opportunity to make punter their own choices. Every individual will have their own way to select and invest. But to make it simple, we are going to list down a few simple investment strategies that will help everyone to head start with the concept of Ashva probs.

Positive Movement Strategy

As mentioned earlier, the LAP uses the late market odds, it is more matured compared to EAP and so it provides better value for investment. In this strategy, we are going to make a difference between LAP and EAP. Positive values represent investments worth picking and higher the difference will have better value. There is a sample created below for Keeneland race no 8 of the Breeder's cup 2020 for your reference. Difference column is heat mapped from highest to lowest.

Race date: 11th Nov 2020		Track: Keeneland Racecourse		RaceNo: 8
Sel	Horse Name	EAP	LAP	(LAP-EAP)	Finish
1	Simply Ravishing	0.17820038	0.18435283	0.00615245
2	Vequist	0.17412782	0.17785375	0.00372593	1st pos
7	Princess Noor	0.21081086	0.21298570	0.00217484
6	Crazy Beautiful	0.04619097	0.04596937	-0.00022160
4	Thoughtfully	0.01719134	0.01634676	-0.00084458
5	Girl Daddy	0.13628366	0.13368012	-0.00260354	3rd pos
3	Day out of the office	0.23719497	0.22881147	-0.00838350	2nd pos

Market Movement Strategy

This strategy is inclined toward public odds. As mentioned earlier, Ashva probs are generated combining factors and public odds information which means comparing Ashva probs against the public probs will give you better value using this strategy. Find the tote / pari mutuel public odds from any betting site and generate normalised public probs. We have shown how to generate normalised public probs in example below. We have used Keenland race no 8 of the Breeder's cup 2020.

We can calculate the public probability [PP] as explained in the below table.

Race date: 11th Nov 2020		Track: Keeneland Racecourse		RaceNo: 8
Sel	Horse Name	Public Odds	Unadjusted PP	Normalised PP (Unadjusted PP/Total)
1	Simply Ravishing	3.5	0.2857143	0.2369608
2	Vequist	7.8	0.1282051	0.1063286
3	Day out of the office	4.9	0.2040816	0.1692577
4	Thoughtfully	39.5	0.0253165	0.0209965
5	Girl Daddy	6.4	0.1562500	0.1295880
6	Crazy Beautiful	16.3	0.0613497	0.0508812
7	Princess Noor	2.9	0.3448276	0.2859872
		Total	1.2057448

It is important that you pick the public odds during the same or closest cycle when EAP or LAP are generated for better results.

Next step is to take the difference between public probs [PP] and any of the Ashva probs either EAP or LAP. We have provided an EAP example below for your reference. The better the difference the more the value.

Race date: 11th Nov 2020		Track: Keeneland Racecourse		RaceNo: 8
Sel	Horse Name	EAP	PP	(EAP-PP)	Finish
3	Day out of the office	0.23719497	0.16925774	0.06793724	2nd pos
2	Vequist	0.17412782	0.10632858	0.06779924	1st pos
5	Girl Daddy	0.13628366	0.12958795	0.00669570	3rd pos
4	Thoughtfully	0.01719134	0.02099653	-0.00380519
6	Crazy Beautiful	0.04619097	0.05088116	-0.00469019
1	Simply Ravishing	0.17820038	0.23696083	-0.05876045
7	Princess Noor	0.21081086	0.28598721	-0.07517635

Top N Strategy

This is the simplest strategy and we pick top N selections or N% of the selections of sorted Ashva probs. This can be either EAP or LAP. You can even sum both EAP and LAP and normalised probs and use it. We have taken the top 30% of selections in the following example for your reference.

Race date: 11th Nov 2020		Track: Keeneland Racecourse		RaceNo: 8
Sel	Horse Name	EAP	LAP	Finish
3	Day out of the office	0.23719497	0.22881147	2nd pos
7	Princess Noor	0.21081086	0.21298570
1	Simply Ravishing	0.17820038	0.18435283
2	Vequist	0.17412782	0.17785375	1st pos
5	Girl Daddy	0.13628366	0.13368012	3rd pos
6	Crazy Beautiful	0.04619097	0.04596937
4	Thoughtfully	0.01719134	0.01634676

Mid Range Madness Strategy

This strategy is similar to Top N strategy. In Top N strategy we pick top selections whereas in this strategy we pick median value or upper median value selections. Top N strategy is more biased toward picking favourite selections and returns on favourites are pretty much average and sometimes you end up with no profit or loss outcome. This strategy picks non favourite selections with better value of the return. As said, with higher return it also takes higher risk. Strike rate would be less compared to Top N strategy but in the long run this might be more profitable. For the risk lovers, this may be the way to go. Following is an example of Mid range madness strategy for your reference.

Race date: 11th Nov 2020		Track: Keeneland Racecourse		RaceNo: 8
Sel	Horse Name	EAP	LAP	Finish
3	Day out of the office	0.23719497	0.22881147	2nd pos
7	Princess Noor	0.21081086	0.21298570
1	Simply Ravishing	0.17820038	0.18435283
2	Vequist	0.17412782	0.17785375	1st pos
5	Girl Daddy	0.13628366	0.13368012	3rd pos
6	Crazy Beautiful	0.04619097	0.04596937
4	Thoughtfully	0.01719134	0.01634676

Hybrid Strategy

This strategy is similar to custom strategy where punters can combine it with any of the above strategies with each other and pick the selections. There are many possibilities so for this we leave it up to the user to decide how they want to interpret.

Ashva probs platform gives choices to punters to take their chances and play their own game. We will conclude with one more question that troubles every investor: “How much to invest on selected selections?”